Firmwide Economic Scenarios - VP
Location: Greater London
Job Type: Full time
The Firmwide Economic Scenarios & Analytics team within the Office of the Chief Financial Officer oversees the development and distribution of macroeconomic scenarios used in the Firm's forecasting processes. The team collaborates with the Economics and Strategy Research teams, Risk functions, Chief Financial Officer/Financial Planning teams, and other corporate areas such as Investor Relations and Capital Management. The scenarios cover key U.S. and global macroeconomic indicators, fixed income markets, equity markets, etc., and accordingly, a broad knowledge base across economics and finance is essential. The team develops scenarios across a range of potential economic backdrops which are distributed Firmwide.
You will play an integral role in the team’s scenario design work and macroeconomic forecasting including directly executing forecasts for macroeconomic variables, consulting with Subject Matter Experts, presenting to key stakeholders and leading junior members of the team. Forecasted variables include GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, credit spreads, equity indices, FX, real estate prices, etc. You will take the lead role in forecasting some of these variables. You can expect to have exposure to senior leaders, including but not limited to the Line of Business Chief Financial Officers and Chief Risk Officers and will have the opportunity to develop important leadership and analytical skills required to advance in the Firm.
- Support the design and execution of economic forecasts that make up the scenarios, working closely with key partners including suppliers of economic variables (JPM Economic/Strategy Research teams or other experts) and users (Risk and Finance Lines of Business)
- Monitor and prepare commentary on economic releases and events, and stay abreast of trends in equity markets, fixed income markets, mortgage markets, etc. and anticipate implications for macroeconomic forecasting and scenario design
- Lead communications and meetings across diverse functions, locations and businesses to facilitate discussions, drive priorities and ensure consensus among stakeholders and senior management.
- Develop executive-level presentations and explain key elements of the scenarios and economic environment to primary stakeholders such as senior management, lines of business experts, and Risk, Finance and quantitative model development teams
- Support the development, enhancement, and documentation of macroeconomic forecasting methodologies
- Lead ad-hoc analysis as needed, e.g., connecting macroeconomic drivers to emerging industry trends and economic developments
Required qualifications, capabilities, and skills
- Strong quantitative skills: Master's Degree preferably in Economics, Econometrics, Quantitative Finance, or related field; PhD is considered a plus
- Relevant extensive experience in research / forecasting / business analytics for a leading financial institution / central bank / consulting firm or similar, with a strong background / interest in economics
- Experience with econometric forecasting methods is required, familiarity with macroeconomic and financial market data sources is a plus
- Experience with programming languages / statistical software (e.g., EViews, Python, R) and advanced Excel and Microsoft Office skills are required
- Excellent communication (verbal and written) skills, with the ability to prepare and present executive level presentations
- Strong quantitative, analytical, and problem-solving skills. Inquisitive nature, ability to ask right questions and escalate issues
- Self-starter, able to work in a fast-paced, results-driven environment with a proven track record of execution against deliverables. Ability to multi-task in a fast-paced environment with frequently changing priorities and a proven track record of executing against deliverables and meeting deadlines under pressure
Preferred qualifications, capabilities, and skills
- Experience in an analytical or research role focused on international economics is considered a plus
- Experience with scenario design in the context of CCAR, CECL or climate risk scenarios, etc. is a plus
- Experience working with structural and semi-structural macroeconomic forecasting models (e.g., DSGE, FRB/US, NiGEM) is considered a plus